Next year will be end of the major broadcast television networks. They will meet their demise with no fanfare, no melancholy send-offs, no bittersweet memorial at the Staples Center. Their influence over contemporary culture will cease to exist, save as foggy memories in textbooks recounting the history of electronic media.
While that’s bad news for network executives, who for seventy years have arrogantly dictated which shows their ever-dwindling audiences can watch and at what time of day they can watch them, it’s great news for everyone else.
The death of the networks and their antiquated programming matrices will be a renaissance for electronically delivered entertainment and a golden opportunity for advertisers, as the difference between traditional television and your Internet-connected computer become virtually indistinguishable.
Viewers will keep their TVs, but instead of being spoon-fed from a limited variety of shows at predetermined times from the Big Three Networks, they will dine on an endless spectrum of news and entertainment from thousands of producers around the world, via the Internet, conveniently viewing them at a time of their choosing.
This shift from Network Television to Internet Television is referred to as “convergence,” and there’s not much disagreement that it’s coming.
What executives don’t seem to grasp is how quickly it’s all going to converge. It won’t happen in ten years; it won’t happen in five years. It will be happening by the end of next year.
As I write this, it’s August 2009. My prediction is that by next summer it will be all over for the big guys. The 2009-2010 television season will be the last one that we recognize as such. (Okay, maybe they’ll manage to stay on life support for an additional year, but it’ll be in a vegetative state, in which case they will be declared dead in 2011.)
So, if a year from now network television ceases to exist, what does that mean for ABC, NBC and CBS (yes, and Fox – although after 20 years or so, it’s still hard for me to think of them as a major network). In short, they will be out of business, and their parent companies will suffer immeasurable losses.
The Big Three Networks are all owned by major studios. Disney owns ABC, Universal owns NBC and VIACOM owns CBS. Corporate directors should start thinking about liquidating these assets now, or risk losing everything for their stockholders. And don’t expect Congress or President Obama to bail them out. Unlike the auto industry, there will likely be more jobs created without them.
Some contend that the Big Three will still exist, but in a different form. Perhaps, but that difference will have to be radical and immediate, two adjectives I don’t suspect have ever been attributed to network television without being followed by a rim shot. In their current configuration, it seems impractical for networks to compete viably with independent Internet producers, who are leveling out the entertainment playing field every day.